Wednesday, May 18, 2016

The 2016 Election


Sanders did win Oregon. As white as Oregon is, I am not surprised. (I am disappointed.)

It is unlikely to have any impact on the race in November, which should be between Clinton and Trump. Today I want to write about how that will look.

First of all, I expect it to be ugly and bitter.

I may at some point do a post about "Those Idiots at Malheur", though they are not at Malheur anymore. If I don't get to it, let me say now that one of the most frustrating things for we was when they said they held a successful non-violent protest, referring to the Bundy Ranch standoff. Maybe no one died there, but it drew bloodthirsty people to the area. Five people died at the Wal-Mart shooting. That included the shooters, yes, but if there had been no standoff, would it have happened at all?

You may be able to say hateful, violent, and paranoid things without shooting anyone, but that doesn't mean that other people aren't closer to the edge. If your audience consists largely of those likely to feel threatened and powerless, the risk goes up.

That has been especially noticeable this year. The people listening may be more volatile than in the past, but it's nothing compared to how irresponsible politicians are becoming. So Carly Fiorina goes on about "baby parts" - apparently referencing one completely different video to criticize a doctored, lying video - and that exact phrase is murmured by the clinic shooter, killing three people and injuring nine more.

Trump uses ugly language against Mexicans and Muslims. Beyond the violence at his rallies, a homeless Mexican man is beaten by Trump supporters. Muslim and Mexican students are beaten by a Trump supporter, and a shop owner is attacked. We don't even know everything that Trump has "inspired", but here is one story:


It is not limited to the Republican side. I am used (especially during election years) to having conservative acquaintances get pretty rude, but the worst harassment this year has been from progressive Bernie supporters. (The worst attacks came from when I posted an article about how some Bernie supporters have been abusive, but they did not seem to appreciate the irony.) Bernie has had many opportunities to tone down this behavior, but has generally chosen to focus on how aggrieved he is that the DNC - after letting him run as a Democrat - have not changed things enough that his smaller amount of votes will let him win. Sure enough, the Nevada convention got ugly, and even in disavowing it Sanders focused on how the Democratic party needs to be more welcoming.

There are a lot of factors that contribute to anger finding such a receptive audience, but at this point, it's here, and it's a problem and the most frequent targets will be women and minorities and especially women of color. So, keep an eye out for the vulnerable. Even if they seem really strong, be supportive. We need more of that than the anger.

I didn't even mean to write that much on that aspect, but more on the course of the campaign. I saw someone predict that Trump will move more center, trying to frame himself as a moderate, and I see the logic in it. He has at times appeared more liberal, and people like him for being a wild card - not for how conservative he is.

The GOP doesn't like that wild card aspect, but they've lost control. Not getting behind Trump means being shut out. I don't see that happening on a party-wide level, though I would love to see a few members of Congress with consciences pull a Jim Jeffords.


I expect big donors to be split. Adelson has come out in favor of Trump, but the Kochs have said that Hillary might be better, and they're right. That's not because their values are good, but - and I have said this before - they are doing very well under the current system. They could easily decide that continuing with a liberal in the White House who faces congressional deadlock is better than potential Trump chaos.

If the Kochs do endorse Clinton, anyone running against her will use that against her, regardless of her having said she would not value their endorsement. Sanders has claimed that he would not run as an independent, but he has also promised not to be a spoiler, and you could argue that he has gone long past the time when he should start supporting Clinton instead of fighting her.


Trump would love a third-party candidate.

Here's one of the things that bothers me the most. If Trump does try to portray himself more moderately, and more presidentially, he could not put on more than a thin veneer. That should crack easily under a little pressing. That should be the job of the press itself, and I have no reason to believe they will do that. They have been courting Trump's favor, giving him free publicity, and not doing their job.

Now imagine that deference to Trump combined with their coverage of Clinton: A Sanders win is a win, but Clinton "didn't lose". They imply her support is weak, when her votes say otherwise. They focus on those who find her unlikeable, but people who have dealt with her overwhelmingly do like her. Even the photos that are chosen to accompany stories are always the worst ones.

Ultimately, that means that my hope comes down to her. The media might not press Donald, but Hillary will. He will push back but she has weathered worse. The odds against her include factors that really shouldn't be there, but if anyone can overcome it, I believe she can.

I'm with her.

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