Sanders did win Oregon. As white as Oregon is, I am not
surprised. (I am disappointed.)
It is unlikely to have any impact on the race in
November, which should be between Clinton and Trump. Today I
want to write about how that will look.
First of all, I expect it to be ugly and bitter.
I may at some point do a post about "Those
Idiots at Malheur", though they are not at Malheur anymore. If I don't get
to it, let me say now that one of the most frustrating things for we was when
they said they held a successful non-violent protest, referring to the Bundy
Ranch standoff. Maybe no one died there, but it drew bloodthirsty people to the
area. Five people died at the Wal-Mart shooting. That included the shooters,
yes, but if there had been no standoff, would it have happened at all?
You may be able to say hateful, violent, and
paranoid things without shooting anyone, but that doesn't mean that other
people aren't closer to the edge. If your audience consists largely of those
likely to feel threatened and powerless, the risk goes up.
That has been especially noticeable this year. The
people listening may be more volatile than in the past, but it's nothing
compared to how irresponsible politicians are becoming. So Carly Fiorina goes
on about "baby parts" - apparently referencing one completely
different video to criticize a doctored, lying video - and that exact phrase is
murmured by the clinic shooter, killing three people and injuring nine more.
Trump uses ugly language against Mexicans and
Muslims. Beyond the violence at his rallies, a homeless Mexican man is beaten
by Trump supporters. Muslim and Mexican students are beaten by a Trump
supporter, and a shop owner is attacked. We don't even know everything that
Trump has "inspired", but here is one story:
It is not limited to the Republican side. I am used (especially
during election years) to having conservative acquaintances get pretty rude,
but the worst harassment this year has been from progressive Bernie supporters.
(The worst attacks came from when I posted an article about how some Bernie
supporters have been abusive, but they did not seem to appreciate the irony.)
Bernie has had many opportunities to tone down this behavior, but has generally
chosen to focus on how aggrieved he is that the DNC - after letting him run as
a Democrat - have not changed things enough that his smaller amount of votes
will let him win. Sure enough, the Nevada convention got ugly,
and even in disavowing it Sanders focused on how the Democratic party needs to
be more welcoming.
There are a lot of factors that contribute to anger
finding such a receptive audience, but at this point, it's here, and it's a
problem and the most frequent targets will be women and minorities and
especially women of color. So, keep an eye out for the vulnerable. Even if they
seem really strong, be supportive. We need more of that than the anger.
I didn't even mean to write that much on that
aspect, but more on the course of the campaign. I saw someone predict that
Trump will move more center, trying to frame himself as a moderate, and I see
the logic in it. He has at times appeared more liberal, and people like him for
being a wild card - not for how conservative he is.
The GOP doesn't like that wild card aspect, but
they've lost control. Not getting behind Trump means being shut out. I don't
see that happening on a party-wide level, though I would love to see a few
members of Congress with consciences pull a Jim Jeffords.
(I did like this, but Mike Murphy is only a
consultant: http://bluenationreview.com/gop-consultant-trump-has-a-chimpanzee-level-understanding-of-national-security-policy/)
I expect big donors to be split. Adelson has come
out in favor of Trump, but the Kochs have said that Hillary might be better,
and they're right. That's not because their values are good, but - and I have
said this before - they are doing very well under the current system. They
could easily decide that continuing with a liberal in the White House who faces
congressional deadlock is better than potential Trump chaos.
If the Kochs do endorse Clinton, anyone running
against her will use that against her, regardless of her having said she would
not value their endorsement. Sanders has claimed that he would not run as an
independent, but he has also promised not to be a spoiler, and you could argue
that he has gone long past the time when he should start supporting Clinton
instead of fighting her.
Trump would love a third-party candidate.
Here's one of the things that bothers me the most.
If Trump does try to portray himself more moderately, and more presidentially,
he could not put on more than a thin veneer. That should crack easily under a
little pressing. That should be the job of the press itself, and I have no
reason to believe they will do that. They have been courting Trump's favor,
giving him free publicity, and not doing their job.
Now imagine that deference to Trump combined with
their coverage of Clinton: A Sanders win is a win, but Clinton "didn't lose".
They imply her support is weak, when her votes say otherwise. They focus on
those who find her unlikeable, but people who have dealt with her
overwhelmingly do like her. Even the photos that are chosen to accompany
stories are always the worst ones.
Ultimately, that means that my hope comes down to
her. The media might not press Donald, but Hillary will. He will push back but
she has weathered worse. The odds against her include factors that really
shouldn't be there, but if anyone can overcome it, I believe she can.
I'm with her.
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